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Thunder and lightning new 529/22/2023 ![]() ![]() This flow pattern took Minnesota from record-breaking Labor Day weekend highs to average or even cooler-than-average temperatures. That wind shear is now weakening, so Lee is expected to intensify through today once again.Ĭanadian Flow Means Continued Mostly Dry With Below Average to Near Average Temperaturesįor now, Minnesota is still within the northwest-to-southeast branch of the steering winds that developed during the middle of last week (see Mid-Tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider). Hurricane Lee, which quickly became a Category 5 hurricane last week, had encountered some of the wind shear, knocking down the intensity on Saturday. Hurricane Idalia did hit a part of the Florida Gulf Coast with relatively low population, but also had two eye walls competing, which lowered the effects. Hurricane Franklin was strong and persistent, but remained over the open Atlantic. ![]() We have seen three strong Atlantic hurricanes out of the more than a dozen. ![]() That tends to interfere with the circulation of a strong hurricane. That's because the warm air streaming away from the warmer Pacific ocean waters tends to create a strong wind change with height. This would also mean that the cold air supply could be marginal, so any storm might have a significant rain or mixed precipitation component.Įl Nino isn't the only circulation controlling the winter weather, but the warmer-than-average winter trend in the Northern Tier of states west of the Great Lakes is rather strong when the El Nino is strong.Įl Nino is also responsible for the relatively low-impact hurricane season so far. However, there are times that a strong storm in the southern stream could allow the two storm tracks to work together to bring major precipitation to the north central US. A storm track mainly staying to our north would tend to bring fewer storms. The trends for precipitation depend on the exact circulation for the year. This tends to lock the really cold air in northern Canada for much of the winter, resulting in a milder than average winter. To the north, a second storm track tends to stall in central Canada or dip only slowly towards the East Coast. That can lead to rainy, cooler than average weather across the South with a possibility of a lot of spring severe weather. The southern storm track tends to focus a lot of moisture and precipitation either into the southwest or from the Gulf of Mexico to the Eastern Seaboard. During the winter of a strong El Nino event, the North American steering winds tend to be split into two currents. The cool part of the year in the Northern Hemisphere is likely to be dominated by the El Nino event, an unusually warm pocket of water in the tropical Pacific, began during the summer and appears to be a relatively strong episode (ocean temperatures off Ecuador and Columbia are 2-3 degrees C warmer than average). That means we will be down to 12 hours of daylight by the end of the week, so we will lose another 20 minutes of daylight this week. The September equinox occurs early this upcoming Saturday. Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus Feel of Fall to Continue Through Weekīlame It On El Nino: Milder Than Average Winter Favored ![]()
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